Asian stock which had reached a 9-month high due to positive export and banking data in China continued to rally as the investors hoped that the Chinese economy would get better. Meanwhile, Wall Street underperformed as the quarterly earnings of major banks started pouring in.

In the market

Stocks: Asia-Pacific’s shares broadest index MSCI climbed by 0.3% mainly due to market gains in India and China. The index was at its 9-month high due to positive export and banking data in China. The Chinese shares reacted positively to the house pricing data and rose by 1.7%. The NSE, India climbed 0.8% as the country heads to general elections. In the other important Asian market, Nikkei was up by 0.2%.

The positives from the Asian market could not see through the pessimism seen in Wall Street as the banking earnings reports did not meet expectations. The major stock indexes were all lower than before with only the S&P 500 doing better.

The European shares picked up as Frankfurt and London shares rose to 0.3%.

Treasury yields: The 10-year US treasury bond yields were at 2.548% a fall from its previous high of 2.574%.

Commodities: The oil rally due to a supply crunch and also sanctions on Iran and Venezuela by the US halted as OPEC and Russia may increase oil production in a fight for domination with the United States. The US WTI crude was at $63.30 for a barrel a fall by 0.15 cents.

Spot gold suffered its fourth consecutive day loss and was at $1,286.21 for an ounce.

Currencies: The dollar was at 96.980 against the major currencies. Against the yen, it was at 111.94. The euro remained unchanged and was at $1.13045.

Senior Strategist Yukino Yamada talking about the recent developments in the Asian markets said ‘Recent Chinese data is boosting confidence in the Chinese economy while earnings have not been bad either’. On the Indian stock market doing well she said ‘Indian shares are rising on hopes on the country’s elections. In the past, they have tended to do well during a six-month period leading up to the election as well as one month after the election.’ To top it, the Asian investors became optimistic about the trade negotiations ending with a deal between China and the US. Wall Street will only hope that the earnings report that is due in this week by big corporates is not too bad as that could mean another downward spiral for the stocks.

U.S. consumer prices went up the most in the last 14 months in March. However, the underlying inflation trend seems to slow down the domestic as well as global economic growth.

On Wednesday, a mixed report was released by the Labor Department which seemed to support the Federal Reserve’s decision to suspend its campaign in raising interest rates. The projections put forth by the U.S. central bank showed no interest rate hikes planned for this years, especially after the borrowing costs were lifted four-times last year.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March 19-20 meeting was published on Wednesday. It showed that most of the policymakers saw the price pressures to be muted. However, they expected inflation to go up to reach the central bank’s target of two percent. The Federal Reserve’s inflation measure which includes personal consumption expenditures price and excludes energy and food is currently at 1.8 percent.

According to Joel Naroff, a chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Pennsylvania, the inflation is likely to remain tame. He also said that the Federal Reserve seems to have gone on vacation and is likely to stay that way for a few more months.

The Consumer Price Index went up by 0.4 percent according to the Labor Department. This jump was encouraged by the prices increase of gasoline, food, and rents. In fact, this is seen as the biggest increase since January 2018.

In the past twelve months till March 2019, the CPI has gone up by 1.9 percent. The CPI went up by 1.5 percent in February alone. Economists who were polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.3 rise in March.

After excluding volatile components like food and energy, the CPI went up by 0.1 percent, thereby matching February’s gain. This CPI remained held down by the 1.9 percent drop in apparel prices.

Last month, the government introduced a new method to calculate apparel prices. This caused the apparel prices which had gone up for two consecutive months to be trimmed to 0.07 percent suddenly. Most economists expect a reversal this month.

In the past twelve months till March 2019, the core CPI went up by 2.0 percent, which is the smallest increase since February 2018.

The dollar was traded at a lower rate compared to a basket of currencies as the U.S. Treasury prices went up. Stocks on Wall Street also went up as well.

Inflation remained mute, as wage growth increased moderately even though conditions tightened in the labor market.

Ping An Bank Co., a Chinese bank is performing at its best at the moment after its dismal performance last year. This has given hope to the investors that the strength of the lender in retail banking will help shoulder the country’s economic slowdown. Ping An Bank shares went up by 39 percent this year. This is the largest gain seen on the CSI 300 Banks Index. According to the analysts in the industry, the bull run will probably continue. The rise of share prices has stoked demand for its $3.9 billion convertible bond sale, which offers nearly 1,400 times the amount.

With Chinese banks benefiting from the pledge made by policymakers for regulatory and capital support, China Merchants Bank Co. and Ping An Bank are reaping the rewards for their concentrated focus on retail banking.  The sector is dominated by the Shenzhen based lenders where competition is slightly less fierce and offers higher returns than in the corporate lending sector.

According to Liao Chenkai, an analyst at Capital Securities Ltd, investors are open to paying a premium to retail banking even during the economic slowdown as it is less recurrent than wholesale banking. He also mentioned that although China Merchants Bank and Ping An have a lot in common, the former bank trades at a higher premium which will probably cause Ping An bank shares to rise further.

China Merchant Bank shares were traded at almost 1.6 times its forecast price while Ping An shares were traded at almost the same forecast price.  The transition of Ping An Bank from corporate to consumer backing began in the year 2016, several years behind the China Merchants Bank. At the tie, retail contributed only forty-one percent of its profit. When the share prices rose to 68 percent in 2018, the bad-loan ratio of Ping An Bank stood at around 1.05% which was lower than the corporate lending bad-loan ratio at 2.49 percent. However, Ping An Bank’s return on equity remains at eleven percent which is lower than the sector’s average, as the bank continues its transition.

The fourth quarter net income of Ping An Bank beat market expectations and triggered a rally among the mid-sized banks in the country. China International Capital Corp. has forecasted about 17.6 percent gain compared to the average 9.4% for China listed banks. According to analysts, retail banking is bright at the moment due to its ability to being less capital consuming and able to provide earnings stability.

Oil prices dropped on Wednesday as a result of the bullish output forecasts by two of the biggest U.S. producers. The OPEC led production cuts that led to a buildup of weekly U.S. crude oil stockpiles also had a role in the oil prices falling on Wednesday.

International Brent crude futures dropped 39 cents to $65.47 per barrel from their last settlement. Brent fell to its lowest point at $65.22 on Wednesday earlier in the session.  

The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures also went down by 0.7 percent to $56.15 per barrel.

According to Benjamin Lu, an analyst at Philip Futures, a Singapore based brokerage firm, crude oil futures will continue to have trouble as markets try to balance between rising U.S. production levels and OPEC led cuts. He also said that the rise in event-driven trading was also responsible for increasing market volatility.

Exxon Mobil Corp and Chevron Corp released Permian Basin projections on Tuesday, which pointed to increased shale oil production.

This will result in cementing the two companies as dominant players in New Mexico and West Texas field, with at least one-third of the Permian production coming under their control in the next five years.  American Petroleum Institute released data that showed a larger than expected gain in U.S. crude stockpiles.

U.S. crude inventories went up by 7.3 million barrels in the last week. This showed an increase of 1.2 million barrels compared to analysts’ expectations. According to Kim Kwang-Rae, an analyst at Samsung Futures, Seoul, saw a rise in U.S. crude inventories weighs heavily on oil prices. Rising concerns about the increasing oil production in the Permian region is also another reason for dropping oil prices.

U.S. Department of Energy’s Information Administration will be releasing official data later on Wednesday.

The rise in oil production in North America undermines the efforts led by OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries). U.S. crude oil inventories have gone up by 7.3 million bpd last week alone.  OPES and its allies had pledged to reduce its output to 1.2 million bpd (barrels per day).

With the ongoing U.S- China trade talks, the market is on the lookout for further signs for resolving the conflict between the world’s two largest economies. According to Mike Pompeo, U.S. Secretary, the U.S. President Donald Trump is not willing to accept any deal that is not perfect. However, Trump is open to work until an agreement is reached with Beijing.